Cryptographically-timestamped forecasts from the QuantFusion 22-strategy paper-trading system. Paper mode only -- org policy blocks live trading until 3 consecutive profitable paper months.
Every forecast in this repo is committed to git before the market resolves. This makes the forecast cryptographically anchored: GitHub signs every commit with its timestamp, and the commit SHA is immutable.
- GitHub commit chain: see Commits.
- IPFS pins (if Pinata configured): hash recorded per batch in
metrics/overall.json. - Schema:
docs/SCHEMAS.md.
| Metric | Institutional | Significant |
|---|---|---|
| Brier score | < 0.10 (Kalshi tier) | < 0.50 (beats 50/50) |
| Deflated Sharpe (Bailey/Lopez de Prado 2014) | > 0.95 | > 0.85 |
| PBO (Bailey/Borwein) | < 0.50 | -- |
No resolved forecasts yet. Awaiting first market resolutions.
- Total forecasts logged: 10
- Resolved: 0
- Unresolved (open): 10
- Brier (overall): n/a
- PnL (paper): $0.00
- Last updated (UTC): 2026-09-23T20:38:13.852920+00:00
git clone https://github.com/jabbertones-cloud/quantfusion-track-record.git
cd quantfusion-track-record
# Each forecast was committed BEFORE its market resolved.
git log --format="%h %ad %s" --date=iso forecasts/ | head -20
# Replay the same strategies on the public Jon-Becker academic dataset:
git clone https://github.com/Jon-Becker/prediction-market-analysis
# then run quantfusion-rf/backtest/jon_becker_backtester.pySee docs/BACKTEST.md for the latest CPCV-validated backtest on the
Jon-Becker dataset (DSR + PBO computed per institutional SOT).
Paper mode. Org policy blocks live trading. No fiduciary advice.